Thursday, May 7, 2009

So today was the day

I have not had time to review the entire report, but if Fast Money on CNBC had it right during their coverage, the one thing that this showed, is the potential impact of the the credit card debt. Besides that, is seemed that the minimum additional capital requirement were not as bad as expected.

I'm still not sure on the exact details, I seem to remember hearing that the capital requirements were all based on 12/31/08 numbers, if that's true for the banks that claim a profit as of 3/31, perhaps the capital requirements have already gone down. I'll have to see if anything comes out about this and post what I find in the next couple days.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Credit card problems and rating agencies

I've written on this topic before and it keeps coming back into the news, although not having much of an effect on the market. Today's story comes from Forbes.com. Also, a more general piece on the Fed from Bloomberg.

I hold firm on the belief that as unemployment increases there will be increased pressure on banks, and a primary shoe that has yet to hit the ground is unsecured consumer credit.

Another topic I've written on in the past, the ineffectiveness of the credit rating agencies...seems like Economist.com agrees.

Wide-Screen Kindle

Wow, this came much faster than expected, but according to most reports Amazon.com is going to release the next version of the Kindle on Wednesday.

The larger screen size is said to target newspapers and magazines to accommodate better display of advertising and insets. In addition, the new screen will allow Amazon to enter the e-textbook market.

Instead of pre-ordering Wednesday as soon as it hits the site (assuming this is all true) I do plan to wait a little, see the new features and then decide whether to jump in. I can hardly justify 2 Kindle's within 3 months, that's a lot of money to save a few dollars a book.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Swine Flu's Economic Impact

The Economist focuses on Mexico, and it's clearly not going to be good for Mexico. From the impact of cancelled events to the countries with travel restrictions impacting tourism, thus far Mexico is the nation most impacted by the outbreak. (personally, although not official yet, I no longer plan to visit Cozumel at the end of the month.)

Overall, Seeking Alpha believes that the global impact will be minimal.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Protectionism in Asia?

Nouriel Roubini has a piece in Forbes discussing the future of large global imbalances. The basic question is whether the large balances in Asia (primarily China) and in the commodity producing Middle East nations is sustainable or whether they should focus on increasing domestic consumption. Therefore reducing their dependence on foreign nations (such as the U.S.) for economic growth. However, since these countries are largely invested in the U.S. one must wonder whether this approach may cause a significant unwinding in the global macroeconomic environment, one that may extend economic depression beyond what we've witnessed to date. Ultimately the IMF will play a key role in ensuring that any potential unwinding at the macro level will be orderly.

So while we consider protectionist policies in the U.S. perhaps we should pay more attention to protectionist policies developing with are largest trading partners, especially the ones that own significant amounts of our debt. This may be the ultimate house of cards.